The Signal and the Noise

Why So Many Predictions Fail - but Some Don't

By: Nate Silver

Narrated by: Mike Chamberlain

Length: 16 hrs and 21 mins

Publisher's summary

Updated for 2020 with a new Preface by Nate Silver.

Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger - all by the time he was 30. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight.

Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.

In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball to global pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good - or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary - and dangerous - science.

Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise.

With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential listen.

©2012 Nate Silver (P)2012 Penguin Audio

Critic reviews

"One of the more momentous books of the decade." (The New York Times Book Review)

"Mr. Silver, just 34, is an expert at finding signal in noise.... Lively prose - from energetic to outraged...illustrates his dos and don’ts through a series of interesting essays that examine how predictions are made in fields including chess, baseball, weather forecasting, earthquake analysis and politics...[the] chapter on global warming is one of the most objective and honest analyses I’ve seen...even the noise makes for a good read." (New York Times)

"A serious treatise about the craft of prediction - without academic mathematics - cheerily aimed at lay readers. Silver's coverage is polymathic, ranging from poker and earthquakes to climate change and terrorism." (New York Review of Books)

Good Read

It's a good read on the role of forecasting, prediction and statistics but the author used a lot of sports analogies, which may not appeal to those who are not that much into sports and in my view this will appeal a lot to male readers than female.

Good story,no formulas

The stories were interesting. Yet I was expecting more explanations, tips, hints on how to filter signal from the noise. The conclusion- it is hardly possible.

very uneven

Would you say that listening to this book was time well-spent? Why or why not?

The first half is excellent, trhe second is a mess. The global warming section is pointless.
His bias shines through esp. when he sez that the the democrats were more in the politcal center. Hey nat whats the center?

Would you ever listen to anything by Nate Silver again?

maybe

What three words best describe Mike Chamberlain’s voice?

good

Could you see The Signal and the Noise being made into a movie or a TV series? Who should the stars be?

maybe on MNBC

Any additional comments?

I wish I would have gotten Caro Power Broker

Statement: People are jealous of Nate Silver

For many of us who don't have a Masters or PHD in Statistics, Nate Silver's Intelligent hard work, provides us with a perspective that "appears" be hard to get from other sources. I appreciated his approach to first level interviews of vested experts involved in summarizing these complex problems to the "audience" (the world people). That's my vote.

Nice book yet not a practical

Would you try another book from Nate Silver and/or Mike Chamberlain?

Not sure

Were the concepts of this book easy to follow, or were they too technical?

very easy

Did The Signal and the Noise inspire you to do anything?

Not really

Any additional comments?

The concept introduced was amazing, but the author hasn't really presented any specifics or practical insights. Yet, the general idea is very essential and mind opening and everyone should believe in the general concept introduce here. Putting my comments together, this book is only an introductory level book.

separates science from voodoo

a must read to gain perspective on the news and all the claims made by "experts"

good insight however a bit too much story

good examples throughout the book, and usually done with a clear target, however Nate spends a little too much time on backstories and unnecessary details. For the most part the book was well written and just what I expected.

Could be shorter ...

There is a lot of background material that goes over prediction for climate change, stock market and terrorism which is okay but the real mechanics of bayes is really only a small portion of the book.

There are other books that cover bayes in more in depth so that's fine but it felt like 75% of the book was talking about backgrounds that really what you can do step by step to do better.

Maybe if I didnt get the unabridged version, it might have been more concise to what I was looking for.

Should Be 5 Books

Would you consider the audio edition of The Signal and the Noise to be better than the print version?

I would never sit long enough to read this book in print. It is very "dense" with information and statistics, which it should be because it is a book about statistics, but for the casual or business reader, there is just too much detailed information. It really would have been better as separate books on each topic. If you use statistics for a living, this is a must read.

What was the most interesting aspect of this story? The least interesting?

The most interesting idea was that most studies report erroneous results and no one calls them on it or reports the errors, meaning that most of what we KNOW to be true, isn't. Bayesian analysis was very interesting and useful. Would have liked more information on how to apply it to everyday life and business situations.

Slow Start, but Important Stuff

What a great set of lessons! I have listened twice, spoke to me both times.