The first and last economic depression that you will experience in your lifetime is just ahead. The years 2009 and 2010 will be the initial end of prosperity in almost every market, ushering in a downturn like most of us have not experienced before. Renowned economic forecaster Harry S. Dent, Jr. has developed analytical techniques that allow him to predict the impact of economic trends, including the following:
Dent offers long and short-term recommendations that will allow families, businesses, investors, and individuals to manage their assets correctly and come out on top rather than get caught in a downward spiral.
©2009 Harry S. Dent; (P)2009 Simon & Schuster Audio
"I hope he's wrong this time. I hope we don't have a great depression by 2010. But given his track record, I won't be betting against him." (Robert D. McTeer, Distinguished Fellow, National Center for Policy Analysis, and former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas)
I read the previous review where the writer stated that there were too many what ifs. Well, there are a lot of what ifs in life, but the general theme of this book does not rely on what ifs- it relies on previous cycles and history. The only very questionable cycle is the "terrorist cycle" which only appeared 1992 and 2001. Otherwise, I find the information credible and will prepare with it in mind. Bad news does sell, but bad news also really happens..........
The book has some interesting pints and I will definitely take demographics into account when investing. However, Mr. Dent world does not capture all factors. For example, information grows exponentially so our knowledge and innovation would also grow faster which goes against Mr. Dent's cycles. Just one example.
The biggest problem I have with the book is how repetitive it is. I think the book could of been 1 hour maybe 2.
While Mr. Dent does show many cycles in the US he sometimes uses foreign example to get his point across. If you base your theories on a US model, he should not use so many examples from countries that are not in his model. If the book was 1 hour it might be worth it but at 6.5 hours don't waste your time.
I agree with the previous reviewer that this book makes a lot of sense. After hearing this book, I will be spending and allocating very differently. I checked his previous work (just to be certain), he wrote a book called "The Roaring 2000s" and was able to hit the trends with accuracy, although his predictions on how high or how low the stock market was going to hit was off. For me, being able to predict the trends for a given year can shed enough light into an investing style that year.
To have general failed predictions is ok, but to go country by country and make a hundred very specific failed predictions about every one is just painful to listen to.
I couldn't wait for it to be over.
Dont buy it. no depth. no sense, no value.
buy another book. it seems more like guessing by the author
Excellent - Dent predicted this depression years ahead of time. His conclusions for how long it will last and which countries will recover first seem to be on target.
I have been following Harry Dent for 15 years now, and have been impressed with him hitting the overall market trends and timing - Harry is not 100% correct, but I have followed his insight for years and it has assisted me in avoiding several large mistakes.
Perfection is not key, but market trends are critical to understand, along with timing. Thanks Harry!
The Science (and art) of forecasting is complex and mysterious. To suppose it will be laid out in a clear linear fashion is quite illogical.
It's easy to dismiss a theory based on a given perception, but the previous comment display how easily that is skewed.
The terrorist cycle did not begin in 1992. The activities of terrorists have marked economic and political scenes for decades and indeed centuries.
The IRA (Irish Republican Army) conducted terrorist attacks through most of the 60's and 70's. The KKK terrorized the southern USA through the first half of the 1900's. The Bader Meinhoff gang brought terror to Europe and the UK as well to many Americans in the 70's.
Do you see how the omission of a simple perspective changes much?
Harry Dents pendantry is necessary to understand the convoluted nature of cycles, and more importantly the use (and abuse) of such knowledge by the global elite who manipulate, and to a great extent, 'drive' such cycles.
That money exists to serve the 'Uber-Rich' should be obvious to even the casual student of history.
What is curious is the persistant belief that all movements of economics is axiomatic and beyond human control. The old money comes with old knowledge and power. We the people never weild it, we are it's slaves.
A good look at a subject steeped in contradictions. However, Man plans - God laughs.
This is the first time that I thought a book that I chose was a waste of a credit.
The narrative is choppy and grating. While I agree demographics is important I felt the author over focused on the concept.
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