Best-selling author and financial guru Harry Dent shows why we’re facing a "great deflation" after five years of desperate stimulus - and what to do about it now.
Throughout his long career as an economic forecaster, Harry Dent has relied on a not-so-secret weapon: demographics. Studying the predictable things people do as they age is the ultimate tool for understanding trends. For instance, Dent can tell a client exactly when people will spend the most on potato chips. And he can explain why our economy has risen and fallen with the peak spending of generations, and why we now face a growing demographic cliff with the accelerating retirement of the Baby Boomers around the world.
Dent predicted the impact of the Boomers hitting their highest growth in spending in the 1990s, when most economists saw the United States declining. And he anticipated the decline of Japan in the 1990s, when economists were proclaiming it would overtake the U.S. economy.
But now, Dent argues, the fundamental demographics have turned against the United States and will hit more countries ahead. Inflation rises when a larger than usual block of younger people enter the workforce, and it wanes when large numbers of older people retire, downsize their homes, and cut their spending. The mass retirement of the Boomers won’t just hold back inflation; it and massive debt deleveraging will actually cause deflation - weakening the economy the most from 2014 into 2019.
Dent explores the implications of his controversial predictions. He offers advice on retirement planning, health care, real estate, education, investing, and business strategies.
Dent shows that if you take the time to understand demographic data, using it to your advantage isn’t all that difficult. By following his suggestions, listeners will be able to find the upside to the downturn and learn how to survive and prosper during the most challenging years ahead.
©2014 Harry S. Dent, Jr. (P)2014 Brilliance Audio, all rights reserved.
I am an avid listener. I listen between 75-100 hours per month on my iPhone: 60% fiction to 40% non-fiction.
In the demographic Cliff, Dent make a reasoned, well supported argument for his predictions. The first third of the book is very slow because he spends a great deal of time convincing you of his solid record in past predictions -- of course they have worked out well or why would he write another book?
That sarcasm aside, he makes a very convincing argument and it dovetails with other books like "The Next 100 years" and Freakonomics. I think this is a must read -- think it over, his argument does make common sense.
Yes, because it makes one think about the potential for future change.
Acknowledging that demographic and population level changes just have to have an economic effect.
His passion for the topic. Though, to be fair, I bought the audio book to use the two hours of commute each day more equitably than listening to Miley Cyrus screech at me.
I haven't decided yet. Even though I'm almost fifty, I'm just getting off the ground in my 401k. If Dent's prediction of a demographic cliff striking soon comes to fruition, I have plenty of time to capitalize on that downside.
Dent has an image problem. There's a lot of negative press out there about him and his predictions. He mentions Tony Robbins a lot too, who has his own image issues. A lot of people think these guys are, to a greater or lesser extent, snake oil salesmen. I think a more concerted effort should be made by Dent to reasonably talk down his critics; not, I hasten to add, in a negative way, but in a constructive prove-my-pont sort of way.
I learned a great deal from the book and look at things differently now. But the author and narrator seemed to preach the message over and over. At a certain point I starting tuning out and never finished the book.
Interesting to read / hear a well thought thru summary from a interesting statistician... I have 2 graduate degrees in economics & this is a great book!
Author seems to struggle to fill the book. trying to explain how sunspots effect market cycles was enough for me
Stick to demographic research
demographic effects on economic cycles
things not in the favourite bit
Probably not. The book doesn't fully fulfill its promise in my opinion.
To base the numerous conclusions on facts. To avoid proving things using a few examples and rounded up statistics which I guess is also derived from a few examples. In particular the author talks about "cycles" he discovered, however, it's not clear how he discovered those cycles, why he thinks those past examples apply to current situation, and with what certainty.
The demographic analysis is described very good. I wish the whole book would follow the same style as the parts about nations getting close and falling off the demographic cliff.
I would recommend this book to someone who is interested in understanding the world demographic situation in the context of the recent financial crisis and the coming one. However, the authors conclusions regarding the deflation period after the next crisis are weak, and as it seems to me, even sometimes contradictory.
Definitely, and probably will do so.
Clear thinking and talking. Easy to follow and digest. Hard to dismiss as important concepts that will affect my life, my investments, my future.
There is an old blues song about who will sing the blues when all the old masters are gone.
Buddy Guy sings this song, I wonder if we are not in the same boat.
Very good discussion about what cane happen when we start to adjust the population and what is not bought because there is no need for those kinds of products.
I enjoyed the subject, having worked with youth all my life and seeing a shift in the number of youth that are living my area. evan when young families move in to my neighborhood.
Food for thought.
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