©2007 Nassim Nicholas Taleb; (P)2007 Recorded Books, LLC
"[Taleb] administers a severe thrashing to MBA- and Nobel Prize-credentialed experts who make their living from economic forecasting." (Booklist)
"The hubris of predictions - and our perpetual surprise when the not-predicted happens - are themes of Nassim Nicholas Taleb's engaging new book....It concerns the occurrence of the improbable, the power of rare events and the author's lament that 'in spite of the empirical record we continue to project into the future as if we were good at it.'" (The New York Times)
I wish Audible would provide a better product. I continually have to go back and try to find my place to listen. Audible apparently disables the ability to burn a book to even one disk so I can listen to it. The iPod just doesn't do well on audiobooks (probably unless you buy them from Apple). It is impossible to get a book burned to CD so I can listen to it and it never plays right on the iPod.
The ideas I obtained may listening worth my time. I got some great ideas. It was a little frustrating to have to listen to some of the non-essential talk, but I got a lot of good ideas.
The insight provided is very inspirational... applies to aspects of life other than investing.
We live in Extreme-a-stan.
performer is fantastic
I'm a lover of whimsical, colourful, revealing and honest writing, whether fiction or non-fiction.
This is a colourful, accessible, lively book, with a clear central thesis, elaborated with plethora of interesting stories and fascinating examples. Thoroughly recommended.
A meandering, discursive work by an author who is VERY impressed with himself.
The use of a fictional character to
I have no problem with Chandler
Anger and disappointment,
Yes. The book is, substantially, a single sustained argument and I look forward to re-listening to and re-engaging with the argument
Ok, so he's arrogant! He knows his stuff.... This is a stimulating and thought provoking book that will shatter your certainty about uncertainty. Many reviewers seem to have missed the point of the book. If you're feeling open-minded, give it a listen.
A fabulous book that provocatively challenges the status quo. The bombast renders it all the more enjoyable for me.
However, it is very nearly ruined by the narrator's treatment of foreign names or words. Before each, Chandler pauses, winding himself up for Olympian feats of pronunciation—which he then almost invariably mangles. His excessive flourish makes these names and phrases stand out in an ostentatious way, all the more awkward because of the mispronunciation. This does Taleb a disservice. Being cosmopolitan, I imagine he intended rather more of a natural tone for names and authors he holds familiar and dear.
The trouble I decided at some point past midway, is that while providing a good, nuanced performance as narrator, Chandler was making me dislike Taleb. He came off as rather arrogant, self-important, mean. I do not think that is who Taleb is, nor do I think that is the only way to take his book. Had I read the book myself, my inner voice would have been much more modest, less assertive, a man of curiosity rather than certainty. This is a book after all about being uncertain, asking questions, looking for deeper meanings and answers. Not knowing anything. But the Taleb given us here hits us over the head, insults, sneers, comes off not as an agnostic of data and economics but a counter-priest. Still, the reading is vibrant, consistent, passionate. I do not doubt the narrator put a lot of effort and thought into how he would perform the work. It is much preferable to a monotone. Every Shakespeare part can be played many ways, so I suppose the same is true of reading audio books. The book itself is certainly intelligent, entertaining, inciteful and eclectic. Some of these ideas seemed rather obvious to me, but perhaps not to most, as people do invest heavily in the stock market and wind up crashing with the market. I loved the thought experiments, some of the anecdotes. I will read more Taleb some day, I believe. This is not a how-to invest book though. At the end he offers a few suggestions about how to invest and how he does, but that is not the heart of the book. Nor is this the book I expected. From the back cover it makes one anticipate that the book will be about why not to over-react to highly-improbably events- such as 9/11. Which was an incredibly complicated plot that probably could not happen again. Yet we prepare for new terrorist strikes as if they will do just what they did before. 9/11 happens, as Taleb says, because it seemed impossible. If they had tried something anyone could think would work, it would not have worked. So I expected the heart of the book to tell us; we don't know what is coming, we can't stop it, so why waste our money trying? Why obsess? When what we will cover will be everything that cannot possibly happen, and it would be counter-productive to try to cover every single possible unlikely scenario. But it is really the precise opposite: he tells us how and why we should work and plan to neutralize disasters, though we do not know when or what they will come as. That the good work of century can be undone in a day.
Blah, blah, blah. Couldn't even make it past chapter 5 and decided enough was enough. I look for long books (to get a lot of bang for my credit) with a high star rating and I listen to LOTS of books. This had both, but I have NO idea what people found compelling about this monotonous book. Glad the author went to one of the best business schools in the world. Too bad Wharton doesn't teach how to write an interesting book. The reader was bland as well, but in all fairness it may have been the subject matter. Don't waste your credit -- I wish I could have mine back. After listening to well over 500 books in the past 4 years at least this is one of a handful I didn't make it through. Still want my credit back! Good luck if you spend a credit.
I couldn't even finish this book. I got so tired of hearing the author tell about how great he was that I decided it wasn't worth the effort to try to distill the message out of his narrative. He's rich enough that he doesn't care what anybody thinks about his book. That only makes him worse. He's rich AND an !%$%$.
I think I'll try to find another economist who can explain the black swan principle to me without first trying to convince me that he's God's best-kept secret.
I am a doctoral student in Psychology, so I am steeped in statistics right now and thought this book might serve as an antidote for some of my courses! The author is obvoiusly knowledgeable, and some of the connections to ancient philosophers are of interest. But, he clearly has an axe to grind. He talks a lot about his ethnicity and his high-powered connections, and he mentions that he refuses to wear a tie except to funerals. Much of the book is more of a personal essay which is just not what I expected.
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