Everything Is Obvious

*Once You Know the Answer

By: Duncan J. Watts

Narrated by: Duncan J. Watts

Length: 8 hrs and 38 mins

Publisher's summary

Why is the Mona Lisa the most famous painting in the world? Why did Facebook succeed when other social-networking sites failed? Did the surge in Iraq really lead to less violence? How much can CEO’s impact the performance of their companies? And does higher pay incentivize people to work hard?

If you think the answers to these questions are a matter of common sense, think again. As sociologist and network science pioneer Duncan Watts explains in this provocative book, the explanations that we give for the outcomes that we observe in life - explanation that seem obvious once we know the answer - are less useful than they seem.

Drawing on the latest scientific research, along with a wealth of historical and contemporary examples, Watts shows how common sense reasoning and history conspire to mislead us into believing that we understand more about the world of human behavior than we do; and in turn, why attempts to predict, manage, or manipulate social and economic systems so often go awry.

It seems obvious, for example, that people respond to incentives; yet policy makers and managers alike frequently fail to anticipate how people will respond to the incentives they create. Social trends often seem to have been driven by certain influential people; yet marketers have been unable to identify these “influencers” in advance. And although successful products or companies always seem in retrospect to have succeeded because of their unique qualities, predicting the qualities of the next hit product or hot company is notoriously difficult, even for experienced professionals.

Only by understanding how and when common sense fails, Watts argues, can we improve how we plan for the future, as well as understand the present - an argument that has important implications in politics, business, and marketing, as well as in science and everyday life.

PLEASE NOTE: When you purchase this title, the accompanying PDF will be available in your Audible Library along with the audio.

©2011 Duncan J. Watts (P)2011 Random House Audio

Critic reviews

"Every once in a while, a book comes along that forces us to re-examine what we know and how we know it. This is one of those books. And while it is not always pleasurable to realize the many ways in which we are wrong, it is useful to figure out the cases where our intuitions fail us." (Dan Ariely, James B. Duke Professor of Behavioral Economics at Duke University, and New York Times best-selling author of Predictably Irrational)

“A deep and insightful book that is a joy to read. There are new ideas on every page, and none of them is obvious!” (Daniel Gilbert, Professor of Psychology at Harvard University and author of Stumbling on Happiness)

"A brilliant account of why, for every hard question, there’s a common sense answer that’s simple, seductive, and spectacularly wrong. If you are suspicious of pop sociology, rogue economics, and didactic history - or, more importantly, if you aren’t! - Everything Is Obvious is necessary reading. It will literally change the way you think." (Eric Klinenberg, Professor of Sociology. New York University)

Common Sense Isn't Enough

As a fan of Freakonomics, Predictably Irrational and Thinking Fast and Slow (among many others of the cognitive ilk) at first I thought this title might not have much new information for me. Indeed, most of the topics covered are familiar ground for me. Still, the social tack taken here really cements how relying solely on common sense can get you into trouble. Clear, articulate yet never dull. Great stuff.

It's not rocket science...it's harder

A good push on our desire to squeeze human interactions and results into simple answers when the truth is things are very complex.

Rethinking my schemes...

Very few times in my life I have read books that make you rethink or reconsider the moral schemes, social, attitude at work and how to address problems and challenges.

Just finished reading one of those books. Until today I was one who thought that common sense is the least common of the senses. After reading now I am convinced that decisions based on common sense are wrong by default.

We don't think how we think we think

"Everything is Obvious" dives into how we interpret the world, make decisions, and how we are unknowingly influenced. Watts makes us reexamine simple decision making scenarios, and then with references to Gladwell's "The Tipping Point," add's additional layers of social or group of complexity. The controllable variables set out in lab tests often become irrelevant when we try to sell into our markets containing millions of other influences. Although some questions may be reproduced many times (batting hit averages for example), others simply cannot (such as invading a country). The information collected from our social networks adds new possibilities for understanding our target market which has been previously unavailable. A thought provoking & recommended read.

A most valuable read

This is an excellent book that should be read by every high school student as well as every college student and anyone who is interested in understanding why it is so difficult to understand the difference between cause-and-effect.
The author demonstrates that most of the time when we observe A followed by B that A is seldom the cause. Also, in complex systems it is nearly impossible to identify how much each observed potential cause was the Most likely primary contributing factor. Most history is descriptive and seldom truly gives us the cause of the events described. Read the book! You’ll be a lot smarter!

good start, preachy end

book moves from interesting ideas to defense of sociology and violates some of its own premises with bias and desirability of outcomes.

Interesting

As is often the case with these kinds of books, I enjoy about half and completely zone out for the other half!

This one covered interesting ideas, it was a little dry, but enjoyable for the most part (…well, the part I paid attention to anyway!).

misleading

What disappointed you about Everything Is Obvious?

I thought this was going to be a book about how things work. It is, instead, his opinion and commentary on society. The title could not be more misleading. I want my money back.

Not so obvious

There are a few interesting nuggets to ponder but don't expect the next "Tipping Point" although he often quotes Gladwell.

The narration would have been far better if read by Humphrey Bower.

The central point, with which I agree, is that looking at incidents in reverse doesn't always lead to cause. Fair enough. But then Watts takes us on a crazy trip of irrational thinking.

For example, people drive drunk every day without killing anyone, so, is drunk driving the cause of so many fatalities? Or is it .....fate? He gives a tragic example of a drunk killing an entire family. But had they lingered at their starting point a moment longer, the drunk would have sped through the red light ahead of them rather than in to them. Is this really worth discussing? Since people drive drunk without killing people every time, we are to suspend drunk driving as a cause for fatalities?

I think there's an attempt to muddy thinking. Sort of the old lawyer trick of making you doubt your own testimony.

Skip this one.

Always a hidden job interview

It's a pity that although it has some interesting thoughts, even though some are rehashed from others, there is always a hidden job interview for a central planner in books like this:"Hire me, I have found an argument to put a sauce of scientific respectability over your grab of raw power over people."
After heralding the power of accumulated wisdom of freely trading individuals, he names cap and trade and all kind of government coerced programs of taxation as examples of free markets. He also blames the financial crisis on the foolishness of crowds, ignoring that a small elite is setting interest rates, inflating money supply and directing the masses with laws as central planners, being lavishly campaign donated by Freddy and Fanny just before these mortgage giants needed a bailout.
In the same line he ponders about how the hell to devise a reward scheme that is fair in the banking world, with all kinds of regulations, while ignoring the most obvious one:let them fail and don't throw in the bailout slaves at the point of a gun. But getting rid of power is not an argument that falls good in a job applications with the coercive elite, so more power to patch the problems of previous power is the rule.