Silver's book provides a miriad of views on our natural interest of the future. Provinding example after example of interesting predictions without excessive detail, Silver contrasts the problems of our wishful thinking verses weighing reasonable probability with far less bias.
I thought the text of book worked well in an audio format, and the pace of the reader, Mike Chamberlain, appropriate. Worth listening to more than once.
People with background in statistics will find little new. Stories are interesting. Dont expect too detail.
The book starts strong with an interesting historical narrative about Protestantism and the advent of the printing press. Then it sort of meanders through some anecdotes of failed or successful predictions for what seemed like most of the body, the conclusion was also good, though felt like it should have been supported by clearer points made in the body.
I came away thinking the conclusion as a proposition was well written and fairly compelling, and what I took as weakness in the body might have been signs that the book was penned opportunistically on the heels of Silver's media attention rather than bringing anything new to the discussion about social psychology and the lack of statistical reasoning in the general (US) public.
Definitely a must read or listen for anyone that is concerned about what so called experts are saying. We all need to be wary of predictions and statistics especially in the hands of governments and corporations. This is an excellent primer on the topic.
I lined this book. The author highlights the issues of predictions and forecasts in plain language. The examples are relevant and interesting.
This book was an interesting account of the natural limits and underlying processes of human thinking, technology, and how they are used in prediction. If the phrase "big data" annoys you, this book may provide a refuge from misinformed consensus views of problem solving. Mike Chamberlain did a fantastic job narrating this piece, which was likely made easier because the writing and themes of the book were so captivating. After listening to this book, I must admit my views are heavily biased due to the value I place on prediction.
The book is a little dry. I was hoping for something more in the realm of freakonmics or Blink, but, the information was good. It took me a long time to finish, which is my key indicator for whether the book was good. If you're into data, I would encourage you to check this one out, but otherwise, I'd stay clear.
Very informative but needs to be rewritten to reach a wider audience (partially attentive people). Examples given in certain circumstances like the actual scientists' names such as ones that either proved right or wrong with their theories evoke human interest and makes it easier to absorb the material presented. The book is politically unbiased which is what will make is truly relevant in the long run. Might be considered a classic in the years to come if rewritten for different audiences.