the world is much more complicated than you think. I was surprised with the open perspective of this book, it challenged me to reevaluate some of my own preconceived ideas. I don't think the author get everything right, but his thinking is on the right track. definitely recommend this book for anyone who wants to think more critically about their predictions.
Interesting book about forecasting, statistics, and why simply having more data is not going to result in better predictions. The writing is mostly entertaining and accessible to all, but if you're interested in the details there's enough there that I was able to correctly answer 3/4 questions on a Bayesian theory test a friend coincidentally posted on Facebook while I was reading this book.
The direction seems a little scattered though, it's more like a series of case studies or vignettes without a clear and cohesive direction. The most important information in the book (in my opinion) is Bayesian theory and how we can and should use it to keep our forecasts realistic; yet it isn't mentioned till over half way into the book and then isn't consistently emphasized through till the end. The rest of the book is examples of predictions gone right or wrong and examinations why; interesting but a little disjointed seeming at times. Still, very interesting read and worth picking up.
There are a lot of charts in the text version, but it isn't necessary to the story as they aren't often directly referenced in the narrative but are more optional illustrations of concepts. Very good overall
The comparisons between weather and earthquake forecasting, and how they differ.
Thinking about earthquake and terrorism forecasting in a similar light struck a chord with me.
The concept introduced was amazing, but the author hasn't really presented any specifics or practical insights. Yet, the general idea is very essential and mind opening and everyone should believe in the general concept introduce here. Putting my comments together, this book is only an introductory level book.
Truly worthwhile content that goes beyond traditional "critical thinking", and has us start to have probabilistic thinking. I just wished that it had been read by the author
Just the one - the annoying assumption that everyone and their uncle knows baseball vernacular. The book is good, the concept coherent but the examples mystified more than explained.
Nothing wrong with the performance