I'm an artist. I have always loved to read but work with my hands and eyes. I listen to books these days to get my fix and keep working.
Nate Silver guided me through the 2012 election with detailed analysis of the polling data he posted on his NYTimes blog 538. I was drawn to this book because I prefer his dry scientific reasoning, and how he explains his steps along the way.
In this book he talks about polling for elections, for which he has proven an expert and baseball statistics for which he designed a system a few years ago that gained him much fame and respect in the moneyball arena. He also describes in detail the successes and failures of several predictive techniques and reasons why humans are so bad at predicting the future. He describes why people continue to err factually even though we live in an information age. Namely, that there is too much data to gather without allowing our human subjectivity to taint the results.
This book does a good job giving insight into the difference between noise and signal and the value of being able to tell the difference
I became aware of Nate Silver during the last election and was amazed at his sensible, no nonsense approach to polling. I had expected this book to be technical and statistics oriented, but it turned out to be a particularly fascinating insight into his life, how he got to where he is now, and of course a lot of explanations about statistics, how they work, and how things can so easily go wrong.
It was a great listen. His style of writing is excellent and he tells a good story. Well worth the time.
I don't think so. There are a lot of graphs in the print version that are hard to understand in the audio version. It was nice to switch between the two.
The stories told were very cohesive and the author built his ideas upon each other.
I loved the part about everyone thinking Derek Jeter was an amazing shortstop because he had to dive for catches when in reality he was a slow mover and had to dive because he wasn't a great defensive shortstop!
Things can be predicted if we can open our minds to the possibility they can happen--the most dangerous thing we can do is deny that something could EVER happen.
very compelling book and thought-provoking.
history, science, et al.
Nate Silver introduces you to the art and science of forecasting, above and beyond his 538 blog (although he goes into that in detail). His goal is for us to understand how forecasters and statisticians see the world, and he explains things clearly yet thoroughly. Starting with an overview of model design and evaluation, he then gives examples from his own experience and some outside research: baseball, weather, earthquakes, gambling, politics, and more. Every chapter is entertaining and personal. He highlights common pitfalls in forecasting, and offers practical advice for making predictions in everyday life. In sum, a very worthwhile listen.
Nate Silver has a fairly straight-forward style and gives lots of good information and stories illustrating his points. The narrator's tone occasionally seems terse, bordering on annoyed. This might have been a result of having to repeat some of the same language many times over.
Thought provoking as you listen to pundits and realize they don't really know what they are forecast or predicting.
The author used is money ball type experience and brings that analysis to examples range from politics to weather to hurricanes and earthquakes.
boring - or a documentary ;)
Web Developer, Eldoren Design, www.eldoren.com
This was a great book, loved the discussions on baseball, odds and the many topics the author covers. Its a very hard book to describe though. I never got bored and every chapter offered me something new and fresh. Be a great book for anyone in marketing or SEO. I would recommend it. Worth the money.
There is a lot of background material that goes over prediction for climate change, stock market and terrorism which is okay but the real mechanics of bayes is really only a small portion of the book.
There are other books that cover bayes in more in depth so that's fine but it felt like 75% of the book was talking about backgrounds that really what you can do step by step to do better.
Maybe if I didnt get the unabridged version, it might have been more concise to what I was looking for.
People who need to know why making predictions is difficult.
Write more about how to make a good prediction - what works?
It didn't really answer the second part of the question: "and some don't".