A good defense of general skepticism and accessible explanation of the usefulness and limits of forecasting.
Money ball and similar books by Michael Lewis for making data analysis accessible.
Unintentionally hilarious name-dropping which I found more endearing than annoying. Almost like somebody told Mr. Silver to punch it up. Lots of clangingly unnecessary references to the food eaten with smart, successful people. Small price to pay for this book,though.
Nate explains things very well. Easy to listen to and you will learn a lot. You don't have to know math to enjoy this book.
Maybe - I don't tend to read books over and over again.
Not sure - he was a good narrator though.
Bayesian thinking. I've been familiar with Bayesian mathematics for a while but I'd never quite thought about applying it to probabilistic thinking the way Nate discusses it.
This book was an amazing read. Nate uses lots of great examples from a wide-variety of disciplines and professions to show the usefulness and limitations of statistics and prediction models.
Through different disciplines, the author explores how statistics can inform. It's not told in "geek speak", rather in everyday, intelligent stories. And, as happens in academia, it cautions about listening to the noise of information instead of seeing what's truly informative.
Nate Silver's book jumps underlying topics casually (baseball stats, gambling, weather patterns, natural disasters) and uses the science of prediction as a throughline. This creates a little cognitive noise in its own signal. Other than that, it's a good, armchair introduction to the science of Bayesian statistical methods.
Yes - profound lessons in how to think and solve problems
Thinking like a fox.
A hint at humor.
So many! Must read again
I'm an artist. I have always loved to read but work with my hands and eyes. I listen to books these days to get my fix and keep working.
Nate Silver guided me through the 2012 election with detailed analysis of the polling data he posted on his NYTimes blog 538. I was drawn to this book because I prefer his dry scientific reasoning, and how he explains his steps along the way.
In this book he talks about polling for elections, for which he has proven an expert and baseball statistics for which he designed a system a few years ago that gained him much fame and respect in the moneyball arena. He also describes in detail the successes and failures of several predictive techniques and reasons why humans are so bad at predicting the future. He describes why people continue to err factually even though we live in an information age. Namely, that there is too much data to gather without allowing our human subjectivity to taint the results.
This book does a good job giving insight into the difference between noise and signal and the value of being able to tell the difference
I became aware of Nate Silver during the last election and was amazed at his sensible, no nonsense approach to polling. I had expected this book to be technical and statistics oriented, but it turned out to be a particularly fascinating insight into his life, how he got to where he is now, and of course a lot of explanations about statistics, how they work, and how things can so easily go wrong.
It was a great listen. His style of writing is excellent and he tells a good story. Well worth the time.
I don't think so. There are a lot of graphs in the print version that are hard to understand in the audio version. It was nice to switch between the two.
The stories told were very cohesive and the author built his ideas upon each other.
I loved the part about everyone thinking Derek Jeter was an amazing shortstop because he had to dive for catches when in reality he was a slow mover and had to dive because he wasn't a great defensive shortstop!
Things can be predicted if we can open our minds to the possibility they can happen--the most dangerous thing we can do is deny that something could EVER happen.
very compelling book and thought-provoking.