A guide to logical thinking and alalysis of data that should be required reading for everyone. Covers somewhat different territory from that first plowed by Freakonomics and Super Freakonomics, but just as insightful.
I am a documentary film producer from Los Angeles.
While missing the point.
This book is very hard to follow. It feels like there is not enough material and the author is blowing time and filling pages with useless details.
I'd rather go for something by Michael Lewis or Malcom Gladwell
I'm Trying to see the world with my ears.
.....Nate Silver is the wunderkind who burst onto the scene with his blog that supplied intellectual elbow grease to issues of probability analysis . In his new book he wanders like a modern day Socrates searching for those with true wisdom . And he finds it--among modest , hardworking , humble folks across an array of industries and government institutions . A wonderful read.
Struggled to finish it, was too long for the ultimate takeaway of the book. Still an excellent overview of data analysis and predictions.
Nate Silver has done a great job in describing many aspects of probability theory. But he spent too much time on sports and gambling and not enough on Climate Change, which he got wrong.
Enjoyed the book, saved me while feeling irritated commuting to work. Quite often I stayed in the car in the parking lot finishing listening to an interesting chapter.
Have you ever been curious as to why certain political officials get elected, why weather is more predictable than earth quakes, or how thinking probably can be beneficial to thinking in absolutes? Nate dives into all of these difficult questions and answers them with wonderful examples. Yes, it is complicated to understand, but that is the point of thinking probably. I enjoyed listening to this audiobook and look forward to more from Nate Silver.
Theodore Roosevelt's "The Man in the Arena" & Raise High the Roof Beam Carpenters: Po Lo's account of the dun-colored mare @deadgametheory
Very sobering information for readers (and listeners) who often believe they recognize patterns where none exist. Mr. Silver utilizes statistical analysis that confirms the outlooks of people like Warren Buffett, Burton Malkiel, and Rolf Dobelli.
The volume of examples in the breadth of so many different fields.
Solid performance in a work that described numerous grafts.
How often we create a very inaccurate story to reconcile why something we witnessed happened.
Very irreverent, and seemingly very correct.
Silver's explanations are clear and make sense - much more reasonable than a number of more polemical texts. He pretty much avoids "let's unmask the villain" tactics which tend to dominate a lot of economic discussionFor example, his explanation that rating agencies rated CDO's on the assumption that mortgage foreclosures were independent events when the housing bubble really made foreclosures more likely was pretty clear. He also explains the incentives of the rating agencies without casting (too many) aspersions. That kind of explanation is much more satisfying to me than witch hunts. I certainly hadn't understood that part of the story before. Fulminating about various parties' "greed" is not very interesting, unless you happen to think that greed is some new human characteristic that reared its ugly head in 2004 and caused the whole mess.