Through different disciplines, the author explores how statistics can inform. It's not told in "geek speak", rather in everyday, intelligent stories. And, as happens in academia, it cautions about listening to the noise of information instead of seeing what's truly informative.
Nate Silver's book jumps underlying topics casually (baseball stats, gambling, weather patterns, natural disasters) and uses the science of prediction as a throughline. This creates a little cognitive noise in its own signal. Other than that, it's a good, armchair introduction to the science of Bayesian statistical methods.
nate silver is the son of a michigan state professor
his careers in poker, finance, and baseball proved unfulfilling
i suspect the wolf of insignificance was nagging at his door
he needed a new and meaningful focus for his considerable intellect
he now aspires to be the high priest for our digital and data-driven age
the wise sorter of signal & noise / truth & lie / wheat & chaff
the book isn't entertaining because nate silver isn't entertaining
he wants to tell you the truth and show you how to recognize a lie
he then applies his focus and filter to the ocean of data we swim in
at heart, the book is a sturdy compass and a very necessary tool
we live in an expanding jungle of useless and biased information
nate silver wants to lead us to the promised land of the true signal
Soo Lee Davis
Yes - profound lessons in how to think and solve problems
Thinking like a fox.
A hint at humor.
So many! Must read again
I'm an artist. I have always loved to read but work with my hands and eyes. I listen to books these days to get my fix and keep working.
Nate Silver guided me through the 2012 election with detailed analysis of the polling data he posted on his NYTimes blog 538. I was drawn to this book because I prefer his dry scientific reasoning, and how he explains his steps along the way.
In this book he talks about polling for elections, for which he has proven an expert and baseball statistics for which he designed a system a few years ago that gained him much fame and respect in the moneyball arena. He also describes in detail the successes and failures of several predictive techniques and reasons why humans are so bad at predicting the future. He describes why people continue to err factually even though we live in an information age. Namely, that there is too much data to gather without allowing our human subjectivity to taint the results.
This book does a good job giving insight into the difference between noise and signal and the value of being able to tell the difference
I became aware of Nate Silver during the last election and was amazed at his sensible, no nonsense approach to polling. I had expected this book to be technical and statistics oriented, but it turned out to be a particularly fascinating insight into his life, how he got to where he is now, and of course a lot of explanations about statistics, how they work, and how things can so easily go wrong.
It was a great listen. His style of writing is excellent and he tells a good story. Well worth the time.
I don't think so. There are a lot of graphs in the print version that are hard to understand in the audio version. It was nice to switch between the two.
The stories told were very cohesive and the author built his ideas upon each other.
I loved the part about everyone thinking Derek Jeter was an amazing shortstop because he had to dive for catches when in reality he was a slow mover and had to dive because he wasn't a great defensive shortstop!
Things can be predicted if we can open our minds to the possibility they can happen--the most dangerous thing we can do is deny that something could EVER happen.
very compelling book and thought-provoking.
history, science, et al.
Nate Silver introduces you to the art and science of forecasting, above and beyond his 538 blog (although he goes into that in detail). His goal is for us to understand how forecasters and statisticians see the world, and he explains things clearly yet thoroughly. Starting with an overview of model design and evaluation, he then gives examples from his own experience and some outside research: baseball, weather, earthquakes, gambling, politics, and more. Every chapter is entertaining and personal. He highlights common pitfalls in forecasting, and offers practical advice for making predictions in everyday life. In sum, a very worthwhile listen.
Nate Silver has a fairly straight-forward style and gives lots of good information and stories illustrating his points. The narrator's tone occasionally seems terse, bordering on annoyed. This might have been a result of having to repeat some of the same language many times over.