Here’s a preview of another podcast we enjoy, Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria
Konnikova. Risky Business is a weekly podcast about making better decisions. Hosted by
journalist and psychologist Maria Konnikova and data analyst and election forecaster Nate
Silver, who both happen to be accomplished high-stakes poker players, the show explores how
we navigate uncertainty in politics, poker, and everyday life. From unpacking AI hype to diving
deep into election forecasting to discussing trust on reality TV, they break down the odds behind
the headlines. Because every choice is a bet. New episodes drop on Wednesdays and Fridays
—listen to Risky Business wherever you get podcasts.

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The country's cattle herd has shrunk to its smallest size in decades and beef prices have been soaring this year, with hamburgers and steaks becoming the latest flashpoints in the political debate over higher food prices. In this episode, we untangle the roots of declining domestic beef supply — from drought and surging feed costs to the lasting impact of consolidation in the meatpacking industry. We speak with Bill Bullard, CEO of R-CALF USA, a trade association for independent cattle ranchers, about the forces shrinking America's cattle industry and what can be done about it. (Editor's Note: This episode was recorded Oct. 30)

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In early November, it looked like almost a sure thing that the Federal Reserve would cut rates. Since then, the odds have come in dramatically, as a number of FOMC members have been talking about persistent inflationary pressures. One such voice has been Susan Collins, the president of the Boston Fed. On this episode, she explains her thinking as to why, right now, she's more concerned about inflation than she is about the labor market, and she tells us what she'd like to see before supporting another rate cut. Today's episode coincides with the first day of the Boston Fed's annual economic research conference, which will be streaming live on the bank's website.

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In many respects, AI technology is already mind-blowing, and can perform many tasks far better than the average person. And yet by and large, its impact has been hard to detect. We haven't seen some huge labor displacement, for example. There's nothing dramatic yet happening in the productivity data. So when will the impact really start to be felt? On this episode, we speak with Tyler Cowen, a professor at George Mason University and the co-author of the famed econ blog Marginal Revolution. He's also the host of the Conversations with Tyler podcast. We talk about when we'll really start feeling AIs impact, as well as other topics, like food, music, and the general state of discourse.

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AI wasn't much of a topic in the 2024 election. But it will almost certainly be big in 2028, and probably even the 2026 midterms. There are concerns about all the money being spent and whether a federal backstop or bailout will be necessary one day. There are the concerns about energy use and electricity prices. There are concerns about labor displacement. And there are concerns about whether we can trust AI outputs. Already we see numerous politicians lining up against AI in one way or another. On this episode, we speak with Saagar Enjeti, the co-host of the Breaking Points podcast to discuss how this issue is already blowing up, and how the tech industry may soon find itself friendless in DC.

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Stocks are overpriced. Bonds are overpriced. And private assets are a powder keg. This is the view of Jeffrey Gundlach, the founder and CEO of DoubleLine Capital. As part of our 10-year anniversary celebration of the Odd Lots podcast, we've been talking to some big names in markets and economics to get a sense of how they see the world and what's changed in recent years. One major change, obviously, is the end of ZIRP. And while Treasuries have rallied modestly this year, Gundlach sees mounting pressure on government balance sheets pushing yields higher going into the future. We also talk about gold, the greater opportunities for a US-based investor when looking internationally, and why everyone should be holding more cash in their portfolios.

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According to Dirk Willer, the Global Head of Macro Strategy at Citigroup, we are definitely in bubble territory. Per his research, the stock market has been in a bubble since May. Unlike many people, whose definitions of bubbles are a bit more vague or a bit more based on sentiment, Dirk's work focuses on precise timing and price indicators that distinguish bubbles from mere booms. Furthermore, he argues that when the bubble first forms, the correct move historically is to buy into it and then just accept that you'll never nail the top perfectly. On this episode, we talk about his overall approach as well as the signs of when the bubble has come to an end. We also talk about current parallels to the dotcom bubble, why gold has had such a monster year, and the signs from the Treasury market that make the US look increasingly like an emerging market.

Read more:
Stock Bounce Wanes on Fed Angst as Bitcoin Plunges: Markets Wrap
Gold ‘Trading Like a Meme Stock’ Sets Up Miners as Levered Bet

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In recent weeks, there's been renewed anxiety about the sustainability of the AI boom. This is partly due to comments from OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar about a possible role for a government backstop in the AI infrastructure build out. We've also seen the stock market wobble, with many major tech names hit hard. But even with all these concerns, we continue to see new announcements all the time. Just this week, Anthropic said it would spend $50 billion on data center development in the US. So are we actually in a bubble? Our guest on this episode believes we are -- and not just any bubble. According to Paul Kedrosky, a longtime VC currently at SK Ventures, the AI bubble is like every previous bubble rolled into one. There's the real estate element. There's the tech element. And, increasingly, there are exotic financing structures being put in place to fund it all. And then on top of that, there's talk of government bailouts and backstops. In this episode, we walk through some of the math that would be required to justify all this spending, and how the seemingly existential stakes of 'winning the AI race' is causing an unsustainable investment binge.

Read more:
AI Startup Cursor Raises Funds at $29.3 Billion Valuation
Point72’s Drossos Sees AI Boom Driving Gains in Asian Currencies

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